THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
The line in the sand has been drawn between Gov. Beverly Perdue and the Republican majority legislators and the battle to develop the 2011 – 2012 budget has begun. The governor wants to use a three-quarters percent sales tax to preserve public education, with some cuts to the university system. A new priority for community colleges would be the “Career High Schools” which would mainline performing students into a two-year community colleges degree program—at no cost to the student. As far as the GOP leadership is concerned, the governor’s budget was dead on arrival. They are working on a spending plan that eliminates the tax and cuts education spending by $700 million.
But…this fight may pale in the shadow of the R word. Redistricting. With a veto-proof majority in the Senate and only five votes shy of enough in the House to override a governor’s veto, the redistricting is going to favor Republicans for the next decade.
The House Redistricting Committee is headed by Rep. David Lewis of Dunn. No House members from the Unifour or Northwest North Carolina have seats on the committee. Nor are any area senators on the Committee headed by Sen. Robert Rucho of Mecklenburg. Sen. Jim Forrester of Gaston County whose district includes Lincoln County is a member. House and Senate committees also will create new Congressional Districts. North Carolina has gained about a million people since 2000. Each state House district will require 76,000 people and each senate seat will represent about 182,000. Catawba County will be a good fit for a two-member House district. A Senate District would include Catawba plus 25,000 from another county.
POPULATION SHIFT
Most of the state’s population growth has centered on two major urban areas: Wake and Mecklenburg Counties. Each will gain about two senators and six House members. To a lesser degree, there will be more seats in the Triad. The redistricting conflicts are more likely to take place within these counties. In the end, these two counties could have 23 percent of the total Senate seats and 25 percent of the House.
According to Rep. Mitchell Gillespie of McDowell who has studied the redistricting issue, the area west of Asheville will lose one seat. Rural eastern North Carolina also will be divided in larger geographical districts.
WILL THE SNAKE SURVIVE?
Republicans have long been critical of the long, snake-like 12th district represented by Congressman Mel Watts. It slithers from Charlotte into the Triad region, roughly following I-85. Will they change the district? And will the 13th, a horseshoe like district extending from Wake to Guilford be reshaped to favor Republican challengers to Brad Miller? Only the elephant knows for sure.
FUTURE OF HICKORY METRO: THINK ABOUT THIS
Education pays in higher earnings and lower unemployment. The unemployment rate is 17.5 percent for workers in N.C. with less than a high school education, 12 percent for high school graduates, 9.4 percent for people with some college, and 4.2 percent for college graduates. Six years from now 32 percent of all N.C. job openings will require a four-year degree or higher.
Some 60 percent of students in the state universities receive financial aid. At Lenoir-Rhyne University, expecting an enrollment of 2,000 by 2012, more than 80 percent receive financial support, many receiving Pell grants that are in jeopardy in the federal budget.
QUICK DESCENT
When Beverly Perdue won the Democratic primary for governor, the state unemployment rate was 5 percent. When she took the oath of office, it was 11.1 percent.
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