With Rep. Mark Hilton of Conover presiding, the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Education began a review of a proposed state budget sent down by the top writers in the House and Senate. The subcommittee looked at a draft that cut state funding for public schools, community colleges, and universities by $1.1 billion. The plan would trim money to public schools by 8.8 percent, community colleges by 10 percent and the university system by 15.5 percent. Teachers, teaching assistants, administrators, faculty members, and support personnel would lose their jobs. The exact number is still being calculated.

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The Manufacturing Solutions Center at Catawba Valley Community College was trimmed by 10 percent, losing just over $52,000 of its state support. The Hickory Higher Education Center was put in the university budget with an appropriation of $264,300. Among programs being totally eliminated are the Teacher Academy, mentoring programs for new teachers, school planning , the Governor’s Education Cabinet, NCCAT, and the Office of Early Learning. Gone. Zipped. Scores of other programs were axed or received a haircut of 25 percent or more.

The budget writers backed away from limiting funding of LEAs (school systems) to one per county. Catawba is one of six counties that has more than one system. “We didn’t want to balance the budget on the backs of counties,” Hilton explained.

The money outline was accompanied by a Special Provision document which Republicans had vowed to eliminate. But the document follows the money and includes language that reflects the mood of the new majority. For example, in a section called “Safe and Orderly Schools” the top chairs indicated they wanted a clear path to “restoring safety and an orderly learning environment in schools.” A parent organization can file a request for the school system to address discipline problems and if the school board declines to act, the state would send in an “assistance team.” Also the provisions says that a principal must allow parents of children in the school to review the budget for the school.

Discipline problems, the learning atmosphere, and attitudes of public school administrators have been cited by advocates for Charter Schools. Apparently the message from budget writers to schools is “get your act together.”

OTHER AGENCIES AND THEIR BUDGETS: The Department of Health and Human Services was cut and also assigned new programs, including the pre-school More at Four. Major changes are mandated with DHHS services. Cultural Resources was cut by 15 percent and Grass Roots funding for local programs was slashed 23 percent. Public television at UNC was slashed by over 50 percent and was advised that all funding would disappear in FY 2012-13. The N.C. Rural Center and the Department of Commerce had reductions of 15 to 25 percent.

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…BUT IT HAS JUST BEGUN: Next week committees will engage in debates and entertain some amendments. But with Republicans holding a controlling majority, few changes are likely. The process will go to the Senate the week after Easter and some changes are likely, especially for some relief to the university system.

‘BRING ME THE STAMP AND A GALLON OF RED INK’ : Gov. Perdue has demonstrated her willingness to use the veto. This week she vetoed two bills: one requiring state employees to contribute to their insurance and the other that would let community colleges opt out of federal loan programs. With Republicans determined not to include a sales tax to offset some cuts, it appears likely the governor will use the veto, delaying the Republicans-annnounced deadline for a June 1 budget.

And so the lawmakers face another prospect of a Long Hot Summer.

PISTOL PACKIN’ SERGEANTS: Traditionally, the halls of the Legislature have been open to The People. Young, old, rich, poor, farmers, retirees, professionals, anyone have been able to walk the halls and make their case to the legislators. Now some lawmakers think this openness is an invitation to trouble. So now floating around is a proposal to allow the House and Senate staff in the Sergeant at Arms offices to carry a concealed gun. This comes after a bill that would allow people to carry a concealed weapon in bars and restaurants introduced by Rep. Hilton.

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Eyebrows were raised when Charles Thomas, chief of staff to Speaker Thom Tillis appeared before a committee in support of the bill arming the sergeants-at-arms. Thomas is not a legislator and was reminded of this by an angry senator following his presentation.

Subcommittees were still scheduled to meet when the top Republican budget chairs in the N.C. House and Senate filed bills Tuesday that was loaded with surprises and also expectations. House Bill 584 and Senate Bill 500 has the short title “The Governor’s Budget.” The longer titles says the bill is a base budget for state operations “and other purposes.”

Surprises: the bills called for expenditures over of over $19 billion in the upcoming fiscal year and over $20 billion in 2012-2013; cuts to education are nominal, less than 2 percent; the proposal of Gov. Beverly Perdue to maintain a .75 cent sales tax is included; cuts to the Department of Commerce operations approach 35 percent.

Expectations: local school systems will pick up workers compensation insurance costs; local LEAs also will buy school buses; the State Board of Education will be given the flexibility—and the mandate—to impose cuts when and if revenue streams are diminished. More at Four for pre-K children is continued, but moved to public schools.

This appropriations package from the leadership probably is a shock to many new Republican legislators who campaigned on smaller government, lower taxes, and reduced spending. The challenge of the leadership is to keep these members on board as the process goes through committees and the full Chambers. Amendments to the bills are likely to flow from conservatives and liberals from Democrats and Republicans when the committees convene, probably next week.

This is the first time in recent memory when budget bills were introduced simultaneously in both Chambers. It gives the leadership the opportunity to meet their deadline of final adoption of a budget by June 1. The majority party also has insisted redistricting will be adopted before the end of June when the sessions are predicted to adjourn. With teachers protected and the sales tax provision, there is less likelihood of a gubernatorial veto.

REVENUE PLUSES AND MINUSES: The largest sources of revenue for state operations are the personal income tax and the sales tax. The .75 cent sales tax will generate over $850 million, according to Fiscal Research. But corporate income tax will be reduced to 4.9 percent effective January 1. The revenue loss from the lowered corporate tax will be $115 million in the next fiscal year and $303 million in FY 12-13.

The budget also transfers $424 million to the General Fund for education, most of which goes to reduce class sizes. A new feature is $69 million set aside for scholarships for needy students.

ACCOUNTABILITY AND MANDATES: While the costs of government were not reduced as many expected, the language and provisions demand more accountability.

Legislators writing the budget want to track local support for education and if counties are paying a fair share as determined by property values and average personal income of residents. Accountability language flows throughout the document.

The dollars may be close to those used by Democrats over the past decades. But there is a difference in the demands and expectations.

Brent Lane, director of the UNC Center for Competitive Economies, is a straight-talking, no-nonsense personality and this week he minced no words with Legislators in an appropriations meeting for Natural and Economic Resources. North Carolina, he said, is in the doldrums and dropping further down each day. His statistics were disconcerting.

Wages are down in all areas except arts and entertainment and agriculture when compared to U.S. averages. Financial sector salaries are down by 23 percent and even healthcare personnel in N.C. are earning less. In only three counties in the state are workers earnings matching the U.S. average. Since 2008, our wages have fallen from 92.8 percent of U.S. per capita income to 87 percent. If our trend continues, we will be earning 79 percent of national income average in 2014 which is where we were in 1969.

Consider that the current labor force in the state is 4.53 million; the number of jobs 4.02 million. To move our unemployment rate down 1 percent from 9.9 will require 40,000 new jobs. “We’re a big economy going through a transition and we are not creating enough jobs,” Lane said. Understatement.

Another insight: Since 2001 our labor force has grown by 329,012; new jobs created in that period: 13,806 net.

INCENTIVE MONEY: Lane’s appearance was prompted by Legislative debate over the use of economic incentives, include the North Carolina One Fund, tax credits for jobs creation, Job Development Investment Grants (JDIG), Job Maintenance and Capital Development Act (JMAC), and Industrial Development Funds. A number of new House members are questioning the use of tax money to lure new businesses to the state. A bill that was vetoed earlier this year would have required Gov. Perdue to relinquish $400 million in economic development fund balances to help fill up the budget hole.

Lane acknowledged that more Legislative oversight is needed in the state’s economic development investments which have totaled $1.7 billion since 2002. He also said some appropriations have actually encouraged companies to lay off employees by giving them money to modernize operations.

ENERGY BONANZA: One of the biggest developments to hit North Carolina still remains a secret in most areas. One of the nation’s biggest deposits of natural gas reportedly lies under the shale in the area where Lee and Moore Counties share a border. Coal mining was once an industry in the area around Goldston. A mine disaster in the 1930s shut down the coal mines which were never major operations. But now property owners in the region as being approached to sell mineral or natural gas rights.

Rep. Mitchell Gillespie of Marion, whose district includes much of Burke County, has taken a special interest in the development and has drafted legislation to protect the property owners and the state government. Gillespie insists the natural gas reserves are massive and the next generation of Clampetts will come from the Sandhills.

Note: Gillespie and other senior Republicans in the House and Senate have concluded the Department of Natural and Economic Resources (DNER) should be trimmed back, saying that overbearing regulations have hurt economic development.

DEMOCRATS DIVIDED: House Democrats are having difficulty framing positions in the current session. Rep. Bill Faison is trying to rally moderate to conservative representatives, while former Speaker Joe Hackney pushes the agenda for progressive to liberal members.

In the Senate, where Republicans have a veto-proof majority, Sen. Martin Nesbitt of Asheville is the voice of the loyal opposition.

The Appropriations Committee working on the state education budget now is looking at options to trim $1.4 billion from operations of public schools, community colleges and the university system. These cuts would offset the loss of revenue from the one-cent sales tax that expires June 30. Some of the public school options:

• Increase the student-teacher ratio in grades 1-12 by 2 students, eliminating 6,020 teaching positions; Savings, $332.6 million;
• Fund teacher assistants only for kindergarten, eliminating 13,127 positions; Savings, $390 million.
• Eliminate drop-out prevention grants; Savings, $13.2 million.
• Other options ranging from savings of $12 to $55 million include reductions in school bus replacements, eliminating funds for staff development, reductions in non-instruction support personnel in central offices.
• Note: The committee noted that by funding only one school system per county, the state would save $11 million annually.
• Options for the community colleges and the university system will be scrutinized next week. Over 50 percent of the state’s budget goes for education.

AND THERE ARE PARLIAMENTARY OPTIONS: While the Republican majority in the Senate is enough to override a gubernatorial veto, House Republicans are four votes short of the two-thirds required. The House leadership Thursday found a loophole that could give them the override votes should six Democrats be absent. The rule: Two-thirds of members present. On Thursday, House Speaker Thom Tillis announced a caucus meeting and promised Minority Leader Joe Hackney no votes would be taken on bills after the caucus. Eight Democrats left. The Republicans could have had an override majority, but Tillis did not think that was fair. But the bill to override the Governor’s veto of legislation requiring the Attorney General to file suit against the national healthcare law is back in committee and if four Democrats are absent during any future session, it can be jerked up for consideration.

CHARTER SCHOOLS: Democrats, Republicans, and even top officials in the State Board of Education agree the 100-cap on Charter Schools should be eliminated. But the bill introduced by Sen. Richard Stevens of Wake, former county manager, goes far beyond lifting the cap. It deals with the flow of money and exemptions for subsidized lunches and transportation. The bill passed the Senate, but the version considered by the House Education Committee had changes that clarified the options.

• Money collected for bands, school yearbooks, and other special programs do not have to be shared with charter schools.
• Federal funds for subsidized lunches, transportation funds and the like do follow the student to charter schools, even if they do not offer services.
• The overall management of the Charter Schools program has been removed from the State Board of Education and put under a special Charter Schools Commission. The state board can overrule the commission with a two-thirds vote.
• Only 50 new charter schools can be added each year.
• Local school boards can convert a school in their systems to a charter school.
• Counties can appropriate money for buildings or capital improvements, but this is a local option.

Charter schools can reject any student who is not performing to academic or behavioral standards. Admission to charters is by lottery. Democrat legislators and school administrators from across the state have opposed the bill, saying it drains money from the public school system. Sen. Stevens reminds them charters are part of the public school system.

The bill is expected to be adopted in the House within the next two weeks. Next step: Governor’s desk. Is the veto stamp nearby?

ON SCHEDULE: The GOP agenda for the 2011 session has moved forward without serious opposition from Democrats who still aren’t used to their minority role. Major accomplishments include medical liability reform which caps non-economic damages at $500,000; looser gun control laws; and seashore groins on the coast. A smaller budget will set the tone for the 2012 election season.

The line in the sand has been drawn between Gov. Beverly Perdue and the Republican majority legislators and the battle to develop the 2011 – 2012 budget has begun. The governor wants to use a three-quarters percent sales tax to preserve public education, with some cuts to the university system. A new priority for community colleges would be the “Career High Schools” which would mainline performing students into a two-year community colleges degree program—at no cost to the student. As far as the GOP leadership is concerned, the governor’s budget was dead on arrival. They are working on a spending plan that eliminates the tax and cuts education spending by $700 million.

But…this fight may pale in the shadow of the R word. Redistricting. With a veto-proof majority in the Senate and only five votes shy of enough in the House to override a governor’s veto, the redistricting is going to favor Republicans for the next decade.

The House Redistricting Committee is headed by Rep. David Lewis of Dunn. No House members from the Unifour or Northwest North Carolina have seats on the committee. Nor are any area senators on the Committee headed by Sen. Robert Rucho of Mecklenburg. Sen. Jim Forrester of Gaston County whose district includes Lincoln County is a member. House and Senate committees also will create new Congressional Districts. North Carolina has gained about a million people since 2000. Each state House district will require 76,000 people and each senate seat will represent about 182,000. Catawba County will be a good fit for a two-member House district. A Senate District would include Catawba plus 25,000 from another county.

POPULATION SHIFT

Most of the state’s population growth has centered on two major urban areas: Wake and Mecklenburg Counties. Each will gain about two senators and six House members. To a lesser degree, there will be more seats in the Triad. The redistricting conflicts are more likely to take place within these counties. In the end, these two counties could have 23 percent of the total Senate seats and 25 percent of the House.

According to Rep. Mitchell Gillespie of McDowell who has studied the redistricting issue, the area west of Asheville will lose one seat. Rural eastern North Carolina also will be divided in larger geographical districts.

WILL THE SNAKE SURVIVE?

Republicans have long been critical of the long, snake-like 12th district represented by Congressman Mel Watts. It slithers from Charlotte into the Triad region, roughly following I-85. Will they change the district? And will the 13th, a horseshoe like district extending from Wake to Guilford be reshaped to favor Republican challengers to Brad Miller? Only the elephant knows for sure.

FUTURE OF HICKORY METRO: THINK ABOUT THIS

Education pays in higher earnings and lower unemployment. The unemployment rate is 17.5 percent for workers in N.C. with less than a high school education, 12 percent for high school graduates, 9.4 percent for people with some college, and 4.2 percent for college graduates. Six years from now 32 percent of all N.C. job openings will require a four-year degree or higher.

Some 60 percent of students in the state universities receive financial aid. At Lenoir-Rhyne University, expecting an enrollment of 2,000 by 2012, more than 80 percent receive financial support, many receiving Pell grants that are in jeopardy in the federal budget.

QUICK DESCENT

When Beverly Perdue won the Democratic primary for governor, the state unemployment rate was 5 percent. When she took the oath of office, it was 11.1 percent.

Republican leaders in the General Assembly are setting a fast-paced agenda. This week the majority released a calendar that has the state budget being adopted by June 1. Subcommittees of the Appropriations Committee were given rules and deadlines this week. The House is to approved the 2011-12 spending plan by April 22; the Senate on May 13, and final approval June 1. This would be the earliest the state budget has been approved in recent memory.

Committees have been told that no expansion items (new programs) are permitted. There is to be no “management flexibility” allowed. And there will be no special provisions that involve spending or policy changes.

House Speaker Thom Tillis of Mecklenburg in his acceptance speech floated June 4 as the date for adjournment. But that is optimistic. If Gov. Perdue vetoes the Legislative Plan, they could be there much longer.

POSSIBLE DERAILMENTS: Republicans have thrown down the gaunlet: taxes scheduled to die on June 30 will be history. Result: $1.5 billion gap in the spending plan or half the estimated shortfall to maintain the current $18.5 billion General Fund budget. Republicans are pressuring Governor Perdue to give up over $140 million in funds allocated—but not yet spent—for recruiting of new businesses to the state. She already has pulled in $400 million from fund balances with state agencies. Republicans want an $800 cash cushion. In the Senate, there are enough Republicans (31) to override a veto. In the House, five Democrats would have to join Republicans to override a veto.

Six Democrats joined the Republicans to elect Tillis as Speaker, including former Rules Chairman Bill Owens of Elizabeth City.

REGIONAL LEGISLATORS MOVE UP: Unifour legislators, in a hotbed for Republicans, moved up in some key roles. Rep. Mark Hilton of Conover is a co-chair for the Subcommittee on Education Appropriations, as is Rep. Hugh Blackwell of Valdese. Upon his return after a four-years absence, Rep. Mark Hollo of Taylorsville moved into the seat of co-chair of the House Health and Human Services Committee, Hollo is a physicians assistant and his district includes Hickory. Rep. Mitchell Setzer and Edgar Starnes are co-chairs of the Finance Committee which considers all revenue bills (expected to be very rare this session). Rep. Jonathan Rhyne of Lincolnton is chair of the House Banking Committee and chair of Judiciary Committee C.

Sen. Austin Allran of Hickory, the longest serving senator, is chair of Judiciary Committee 2. Each legislator serves as a member of several other committees.

GENDER CHANGE: Legislative assistants who handle correspondence, appointments, and clerical duties usually have been women, some working parttime. This session an increasing number are men, some recent college graduates who have struggled in a recession-driven job market. One male assistant is an attorney from a small town. A few are attracted to the world of politics and government.

Carlton Huffman, whose family owns Huffman Knitting and Huffman Hosiery in Granite Falls, is the legislative assistant to Rep. Jonathan Jordan of Watauga County Huffman formerly worked for presidential –candidate Pat Buchanan and lived in Washington DC area.

HANG TOUGH, GOVERNOR: Mitchell Gold, CEO of Mitchell Gold and Bob Williams Furniture, is among 15 prominent corporate executives who sent a letter to Gov. Perdue urging her to submit a budget with full funding for education and infrastructure needs, even if it requires more revenue. They said the state’s reputation for an excellent business climate is at risk. Other signers included Jim Goodman, CEO of Capital Broadcasting, and Ann Goodman, public relations director, at SAS Institute and wife of Jim Goodnight, billionaire co-founder of SAS. The Goodnights are prominent Republicans.

The news and trends have not been good for Democrats. Polls show that nationally likely voters prefer Republicans over Democrats to solve the nation’s economic morass by 10 percentage points or more. Shrill right-wing bloggers type hate messages in response to newspaper stories. In Nevada, Sharon Angle has raised $14 million in the last quarter to unseat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Even some high-profile Republican leaders earlier this year described Angle as a nut case.

And yet.

Yet Democrats in Hickory have been able to raise respectable money for their party candidates. A reception for Secretary of State Elaine Marshall at the home of Bob Williams raised $30,000 for her effort to unseat Sen. Richard Burr. An event at the home of Heather and Lyndon Helton in Hickory produced $16,000 for N.C. House candidates David Munday and Gary LaFone. In a county dominated by Republicans for four decades and GOP-biased news media, Democrats are holding on.

If it’s true that all politics are local, Democrats have the chance to follow the footsteps of Rep. Ray Warren, a retiring Democrat admired by business and community leaders of both parties. The opponents of Munday and LaFone are incumbents with a known track record—one that is totally ineffective and lacking any leadership whatsoever.

POLLING THE POLLS: In today’s political campaigns at the state and national level, polls drive the message. Polls also create momentum although the purpose supposedly is to gauge momentum. And, according to a study published by Datanet from UNC-Chapel Hill, all polls are NOT created equal. So who’s poll do you believe?

Well polling analyst Nate Silver has come up with his “grading” system based on the PIE factor—Pollster Introduced Error—which reflects the amount of error associated with a pollster beyond what is unavoidable do to things like sampling variance. A lower score the better. In his rankings, the Field Poll, with a 1.05 PIE factor is the best, the most reliable, followed by ABC/Washington Post.

Not far down the list is Public Policy Polling, headquartered in Raleigh and used by Democratic candidates in North Carolina and beyond. The Rasmussen Poll is further down the list and much further down are CNN/Opinion Research and CBS/New York Times with a 1.94 PIE. Toward the bottom is FOX/Opinion Dynamic (2.22)

The Ayres, McHenry and Associates (yes that McHenry) firm did not release enough data to have relevant or accurate scores, Silver said. Nor were the polling programs at Elon and High Point Universities included although North Carolina media publish their findings frequently. The polling center of the John Pope Civitas Institute also was not included. The full report can be found on the Datanet website.

THREE CABALERROS: There they are side by side. Richard Burr. Patrick McHenry. Kelsey Williams. Through rural areas of the area, their signs, often three feet by four feet, are lined up side by side to appeal to the most rabid of Republicans. Williams is running in a non-partisan District Judge race. In his mind, justice is handed out only by elephants.

Even some Republican lawyers are dismayed. But they say what he is doing is legal, if unethical. Party members in Hickory are circulating a story that Williams was refused service in a downtown sandwich shop because his intra-party politics angered the owner.

TALENT HUNT: Recently, three top Republican senators held a funds-raising reception at Big Ed’s in Raleigh. Minority Leader Phil Berger, Stan Bingham of Denton, and Fletcher Hartsell of Cabarras County were mulling over possible election results that could give the GOP control of the Senate for the first time in 132 years.

Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight has presided over a comfortable Democratic majority, but he has reached across the aisle to name Bingham and Hartsell chairs or co-chairs. Bingham thinks GOP leaders will do the same. “A lot of my associates in the Senate don’t have experience in running and organizing committees,” he told the Informer.

Several Republican senators at the reception worried that the GOP tide is peaking too early. Most voters make up their minds two to three days before they go to the polls unless they vote early, starting Oct. 14.

NUMBER 14?: An official with Elections Data Service out of Manassas Virginia has told state officials that North Carolina could gain another congressional seat as a result of a surge in military population over the past 10 years. The chances are about even, according to Kimbrall Brace, president of EDS. Earlier population estimates showed North Carolina about 51,000 short of a new congressional seat, but that number will close when service persons serving overseas are counted.

There are 416,000 jobs linked to the military operations in the state—8 percent of the state’s total workforce.

Marshall Cohen, a nationally-recognized forecaster of trends, was speaking at a gathering of hosiery manufacturers and suppliers this week and made a startling observation: Americans had better get used to it: our economic climate represents the new norm for the United States. Expect permanent unemployment rates of 10 per cent and if you are in the Hickory Metro area, it will be greater. There will be less money and fewer banks.

Jobs will continue to disappear. ATM machines mean banks need fewer tellers. Self-checkout stations in big box stores translate to fewer cashiers. In manufacturing, technology will assure that most jobs lost in the past decade are gone forever. President Obama and Democrats can’t change the course and neither can Republicans despite their “pledge with America.”

Politically, the Hickory area in the future will become more disconnected with mainstream North Carolina. With a stagnant economy here, the adult population will grow older as a percentage—and more conservative. The growth is occurring in the Charlotte and Raleigh Metros and new blood in those regions are creating purple voting patterns (more competitive). In the next decade, almost 30 percent of state legislators will come from these two regions. Their voices will be louder and will demand more resources for growth. The Wake County school population, for instance, has grown from 98,000 in 2001 to an estimated 143,000 this year. Outlying areas, including Hickory, will have to send their most intelligent, most capable people to the General Assembly to be recognized.

MONEY, MONEY, MONEY, MONEY: The Hickory Community Theater’s production of “Cabaret” includes a song that insists “money makes the world go around.” Also, think politics. Candidates who will be spending $80,000 or more for a an elected office that pays $45,000 per session, including travel and per diem, surely must pause and ponder the sense of it all. But now there is a new element: big businesses with big agenda can write corporate checks. For challengers, this can be a big problem. Raising money from local people this year has been comparable to drilling for water in the Sahara. And yet, big money does not necessarily follow the most competent candidates.

Next year, the region will be without its most successful legislator in decades, with the retirement of Rep. Ray Warren. The successor to Warren and others elected from this region will set the stage for the next 10 years a.k.a. redistricting. Better find some money.

OUR OWN CHICKEN LITTLE: Hickory Mayor Rudy Wright’s panicking op-ed piece in a local newspaper had a henny-penny flavor. When a falling acorn hit her on the head, the hen concluded the sky is falling and she rushed out to sound the alarm. For the mayor, it was something that led him to conclude “the unions are coming, the unions are coming.” Mayor Wright was not living in Hickory in the heyday of manufacturing when more than 80,000 people in the region were employed in furniture, hosiery, textiles, and supplier manufacturing companies. This was a workforce of proud, independent people who wanted no part of union elections. So with almost 50,000 of those jobs gone, what was the blow to the head that prompted the outburst? He suggested that the threat came from the ranks of public employees, namely firemen and policemen, all subject to his leadership. In the end, Chicken Little looked foolish

PARTY POOPERS? A longtime member of the Hickory Coffee Club commented this week: I think the TEA Party crowd is going to hurt the Republicans.” He wasn’t thinking about implications for the local partisans, but more of the impact on the national scene. It could be that U.S. Senate candidates in four states—Florida, Alaska, Delaware, and Vermont—will be elected as independents, joining Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. If they all caucus together, that could influence the priorities as much as so-called blue dog Democrats.

The media will have a field day and coverage will shape the attitudes in the electorate at local levels. If the TEA movement is an anti-incumbent momentum, legislators in both parties are subject to defeat.

What if voters elected two Democratic members to the N.C. House of Representatives this fall? What if retiring Rep. Ray Warren is successful in his efforts to help David Munday of Taylorsville and former Conover Police Chief Gary Lafone?

That would put Catawba County solidly in the majority party caucus under the leadership of House Speaker Joe Hackney. And it would give Hickory another effective conduit into state government, following the four effective years of Warren. The strength of that effort will be seen at a reception October 7 to raise campaign funds for Munday and Lafone. The $250 per person event will be held at the home of Heather and Lyndon Helton, with Martha and Paul Fogleman as co-hosts. Considering the benefits the area received as a result of Warren’s untiring activity, the price of the ticket is a reasonable investment.

REPUBLICANS ROLL THE DICE: The State Republican Party under the leadership of Tom Fetzer is dialing for dollars on behalf of all their legislative candidates.

A reception for Rep. Mark Hilton of Conover, Rep. Hugh Blackwell of Valdese, Rep. Tim Moore of Cleveland County, and Mark Hollo of Taylorsville will be held later this month in Raleigh where lobbyists are regularly tapped. This week Raleigh events were held for Rep. Mitchell Gillespie of McDowell. September 29 is reserved for Rep. Julia Howard of Mocksville.

Republicans did an outstanding job of recruiting candidates for all legislative seats, although some are names only—no organization or drive. Veteran observes predict the House Democrats will see their majority shrink by three or four but will still maintain control. With 20 percent of Senate Democrats retiring, a change of leadership in that Chamber is more likely. In the meantime, the money game goes on.

CORPORATE MONEY IS FLOWING: As expected, corporate money is coming into North Carolina politics via the so-called 527 organizations. Variety Wholesale, owned by former House member Art Pope has put $100,000 into a Republican-leaning advocacy group known as Real Jobs Now. Nice title. But there’s no there there. The purpose is not to create jobs but to create ultra conservative legislators. In addition to Variety Wholesale, other corporate contributions reportedly has pushed the Real Jobs Now kitty up to $900,000.

PREDICTION: While the wind is at the backs of Republicans, it is far from certain they will take over Congress. Timing is everything. Their tidal wave can peak in October and start crashing. The TEA Party agenda can cause independent voters to pause: social security would be a voluntary program (i.e. Dick Arney); Medicare ditto. A rollback of the healthcare program would keep dependents between 21 and 26 off their parents family healthcare insurance and remove prohibitions on pre-existing conditions. When this sinks in, voters will have second thoughts.

Like Cinderella, North Carolina legislators were keeping an eye on the clock as it approached midnight Friday. Adjournment was ticking away, with two of the most important bills of the session (other than the budget) still on the floor. But is was long after midnight—about 5:32 a.m. Saturday—when the sergeants at arms opened doors to both House and Senate so that Speaker Joe Hackney and Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton could simultaneously adjourn sine die.

The Ethics Bill was being hammered out by conferees on Friday evening. The differences in the House and Senate versions centered on disclosures and limits to contributions to campaigns. Specifically, contractors doing business with the state are forbidden to make contributions. The Senators argued that potential were not covered by the bill, perhaps putting current contractors at a disadvantage. The bill finally adopted restricts gifts to elected officials and state employees and requires disclosures of people who hold appointed positions. The legislation specifically is aimed at eliminating “pay to play” tactics in statewide campaigns.

House Bill 748 addresses the disclosures of corporations and wealthy individuals contributing the so-called 527 advertising. A current ad with an oil-covered figure representing Sen. Richard Burr is an example. The ad was placed and paid for by an independent group attacking Burr for accepting almost $500,000 in contributions from big oil companies. The Republican caucus in the N.C. House reportedly is pursuing registration of a 527 under the leadership of Paul Shumaker of Granite Falls.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruling in January opened the door for corporate money to be used in endorsement or attack ads. Legislators in both parties sponsored House Bill 748. It, too, was approved as pumpkin coach arrived to take the legislators home. Their glass slippers are now in the hands of voters.

IT’S IN THE DETAILS: Wags in Raleigh used to say home, wife and children were never safe while the Legislature was in town. Bills on the agenda of the House and Senate during the last 14 hours the General Assembly perhaps explains why this was repeated.

“Clarifying changes to the General Statutes and Session Laws” was the title of a 10-page bill confronting lawmakers. The bill: (1) imposed new requirements and closed loopholes in vehicle inspection laws; (2) dealt with creation of a trust by courts; (3) requires owners to install carbon monoxide detectors in rental units; (4) mandates that health benefit plans provide coverage for one hearing aid up to $2,500; establishes “NC Thinks” to reward state employees for innovations and suggestions that save money for their respective agencies; and addresses the legal status of prisoners who are immigrants.

No committee hearings. No advance notice. Just submitted for adoption on the final day of session.

Another bill entitled Various Economic Incentives gives major tax breaks to movie companies filming in North Carolina and their high-paid stars. Legislators from the Wilmington area argued that the state will lose its growing film industry without competitive incentives. The bill also: promotes Eco Industrial Parks to be certified by the N.C. Department of Commerce; creates a N.C. Green Business Fund which can give grants to up to 25 small businesses each year to create green manufacturing companies; creates a Uwharrie Regional Resources Commission to preserve opens spaces in the Piedmont Sandhills and encourage economic development; and sets up a DNA database.

The Uwharrie Regional Resources Commission was born out of an effort to create the Yadkin River Trust to prevent Alcoa from renewing its contract for production of electric power. Albemarle, Stanley County, and other surrounding counties and cities had been frustrated by Alcoa’s control of lands along the river.

All initiatives were approved with broad support, but they saw the light in the waning hours of the session.

TOAST TO RAY WARREN: The day before Rep. Ray Warren of Alexander County ended his legislative career, his ABC Reform Bill was adopted by the House and the Senate. The far-reaching bill sets limits on pay for board members and employees, requires annual budgets of the local ABC boards to be published and public hearings held, and prohibits vendors from entertaining or giving gifts to boards or employees.
Warren, who chaired by the House ABC Committee spent almost a year working with other legislators, the state ABC Commission, and the legislative staff to craft the bill. It is a good legacy for his two-term tenure in the House.

LET THE GAMES BEGIN: Partisan spin on the 2010 session has begun. Democrats: we balanced the budget without raising taxes, we reduced spending, we protected public education and teachers. Republicans: nothing was done to head off a $3 billion shortfall next year, no action was taken to prohibit gay marriages in North Carolina, and more could have been done in the Ethics bill.